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Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction

The chain of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: optimistic declarations are delivered from various governments. Immense energy is devoted on managing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "settlement".

Nighttime Reality

As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from across the border, a capacity enabled by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been scrambled to engage hostile aerial threats roared overhead – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by European allies.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: several firings fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely delivered by Western nations. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: maybe the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and further power outages.

Persistent Threats

Soon after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its destination.

With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: several casualties, damage and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a need that European nations are evidently unprepared to replace in the short term.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The comprehensive proposal from American leadership sparked intense emotion, discussion and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.

Every new proposal from American administration adheres to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, certainly, persist.

Tactical Assessments

It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration functions according to a premise understood by international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government assumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to relinquish the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.

The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does minimal to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the current condition will not change more in its advantage in the coming year.

Divergent Views

Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the outcome.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding people and territory but averting a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its benefit.

Current Realities

Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their task will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.

Conclusion and Outlook

It took a mere seven days to kill the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.

While new initiatives based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, mainly require sustained allied backing.