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Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.

That is the message from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."

New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion

The team have studied the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.

"What concerns everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Governmental Mandate

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.

Lack of Substantive Discussion

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.

"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in universities but hardly any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. They authors two pieces that aim for objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.

Debates encompass national emblems, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and stimulate discussion.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the concept that there might be valid points on both sides."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.

"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.

Likelihood of Referendum

The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has possesses something to learn from the opposing positions."

Appeal for Wider Debate

Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."